Stocks Remind Me Of Gold And They Could See A ‘Quick And Painful Adjustment

The S&P 500 ended the week at yet another all-time record high.

Some have tried to compare the current peak to the stock market tops we’ve seen in 2000 and 2007.

However, many — like Reformed Broker Josh Brown — are quick to remind everyone that the comparisons stop with nominal price. Relative to earnings, stocks are clearly much more reasonably priced than they were before the last two market crashes.

This is not to say that there aren’t things we should worry about.

“I am troubled to see that forward earnings has been stuck around its record high of $115 for the past nine weeks,” wrote market guru Ed Yardeni earlier this week. “This is the measure of earnings that I believe drives the market.”

Indeed, this earnings growth stagnation amid rising stock prices have caused valuations to become less attractive.

In a piece for Itaú BBA titled “Developing Euphoria,” hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf raises similar concerns. Interestingly, he draws comparisons between the stock market and the gold market. Here’s an excerpt (emphasis added):

The problem with currently rising equity markets is not rising prices but the lack of fundamental improvement. Stock prices are driven primarily by this lack of alternative investment opportunities and the growing belief that central banks’ money printing can and will generate attractive investment returns for equity investors for a long time despite the lack of supporting fundamentals in the real economy. That is a risky assumption, but as long as rising trends remain intact, nobody worries. In fact, the momentum of the leading equity market indices (Japan, the U.S., Germany and Switzerland to name some) is very powerful and has the potential to carry further, potentially even into a buying climax. Similarities to the gold price in spring 2011 come to mind. At that time, the conviction that gold could only go one way because inflation will eventually rise was as extreme as is now the case for equities.

Once equity markets discover the emperor has no clothes, they could face a quick and painful adjustment to bring markets in line again with fundamentals. For the gold market it was when investors realized there was no rise in CPI inflation or the assumption that systemic risks are declining. It is true that equities look attractive relative to fixed-income alternatives from a valuation point of view, when depressed fixed-income yields are compared to dividend yields or earnings yields (reciprocal of P/E ratios). Those comparisons are all fine as long as economies do not fall back into a recession and earnings stay at least stable. As investors are not expecting a recession, they still believe equities are by far the best place to be, and they act accordingly. That’s why we might see an end to this cycle with a bang (buying climax) and not a whimper (conventional broadening cycle top).

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/felix-zulauf-stocks-look-like-gold-2013-5

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Threat to the Hegemony of the US Dollar? Rigged Gold Bullion Market

Over the past month there has been a statistically improbable concurrence of events that can only be explained as a conspiracy to protect the dollar from the Federal Reserve’s policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).

Quantitative Easing is the term given to the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing 1,000 billion new dollars annually in order to finance the US budget deficit by purchasing US Treasury bonds and to keep the prices high of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big to fail” (BTBF) balance sheets by purchasing mortgage-backed derivatives. Without QE, interest rates would be much higher, and values on the banks’ balance sheets would be much lower.

Quantitative Easing has been underway since December 2008. During these 54 months, the Federal Reserve has created several trillion new dollars with which the Fed has monetized the same amount of debt.

One result of this policy is that most real US interest rates are negative. Another result is that the supply of dollars has outstripped the world’s demand for dollars.

These two results are the reason that the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money with which to purchase Treasury bonds and mortgage backed derivatives threatens the dollar’s exchange value and, thus, the dollar’s role as world reserve currency.

To be the world reserve currency means that the dollar can be used to pay any and every country’s oil bills and trade deficit. The dollar is the medium of international payment.

This is very helpful to the US and is the main source of US power. Because the dollar is the reserve currency, the US can cover its import costs and pay for its cost of operation simply by creating its own paper money.

If the dollar were not the reserve currency, Washington would not be able to finance its wars or continue to run large trade and budget deficits. Therefore, protecting the exchange value of the dollar is Washington’s prime concern if it is to remain a superpower.

The threats to the dollar are alternative monies–currencies that are not being created in enormous quantities, gold and silver, and Bitcoins, a digital currency.

The Bitcoin threat was eliminated on May 17 when the Department of Homeland Security seized Bitcoin’s accounts. The excuse was that Bitcoin had failed to register in keeping with the US Treasury’s anti-money laundering requirements.

Washington has stifled the threat from other currencies by convincing other large currencies to out-print the dollar. Japan has complied, and the European Central Bank, though somewhat constrained by Germany, has entered the printing mode in order to bail out the private banks endangered by the “sovereign debt crisis.”

That leaves gold and silver. The enormous increase in the prices of gold and silver over the last decade convinced Washington that there are a number of miscreants who do not trust the dollar and whose numbers must not be permitted to increase.

The price of gold rose from $272 an ounce in December 2000 to $1,917.50 on August 23, 2011. The financial gangsters who own and run America panicked. With the price of the dollar collapsing in relation to historical real money, how could the dollar’s exchange rate to other currencies be valid? If the dollar’s exchange value came under attack, the Federal Reserve would have to stop printing and would lose control over interest rates.

The bond and stock market bubbles would pop, and the interest payments on the federal debt would explode, leaving Washington even more indebted and unable to finance its wars, police state, and bankster bailouts.

Something had to be done about the rising price of gold and silver.

There are two bullion markets. One is a paper market in New York, Comex, where paper claims to gold are traded. The other is the physical market where personal possession is taken of the metal–coin shops, bullion dealers, jewelry stores.

The way the banksters have it set up, the price of bullion is not set in the markets in which people actually take possession of the metals. The price is set in the paper market where speculators gamble.

This bifurcated market gave the Federal Reserve the ability to protect the dollar from its printing press.

On Friday, April 12, 2013, short sales of gold hit the New York market in an amount estimated to have been somewhere between 124 and 400 tons of gold. This enormous and unprecedented sale implies an illegal conspiracy of sellers intent on rigging the market or action by the Federal Reserve through its agents, the BTBF that are the bullion banks.

The enormous sales of naked shorts drove down the gold price, triggering stop-loss orders and margin calls. The attack continued on Monday, April 15, and has continued since.

Before going further, note that there are position limits imposed on the number of contracts that traders can sell at one time. The 124 tons figure would have required 14 traders with no open interest on the exchange to sell all together in the same few minutes 40,000 futures contracts. The likelihood of so many traders deciding to short at the same moment at the maximum permitted is not believable. This was an attack ordered by the Federal Reserve, which is why there is no investigation of the illegality.

Note also that no seller that wanted out of a position would give himself a low price by dumping an enormous amount all at once unless the goal was not profit but to smash the bullion price.

Since the April 12-15 attack on the gold price, subsequent attacks have occurred at 2pm Hong Kong time and 2 am New York time. At this time activity is light, waiting on London to begin operating. As William S.Kaye has observed, no entity concerned about profits would choose this time to sell 20,000 to 30,000 futures contracts, but this is what has been happening.

Who can be unconcerned with losing money in this way? Only a central bank that can print it.

Now we come to the physical market where people take possession of bullion instead of betting on paper instruments. Look at this chart from ZeroHedge.  The demand for physical possession is high, despite the assault on gold that began in 2011, but as the price is set in the non-real paper market, orchestrated short sales, as in the current quarter of 2013, can drive down the price regardless of the fact that the actual demand for gold and silver cannot be met.

While the corrupt Western financial press urges people to abandon bullion, everyone is trying to purchase more, and the premiums above the spot price have risen. Around the world there is a shortage of gold and silver in the forms, such as one-ounce coins and ten-ounce bars, that individuals demand.

That the decline in gold and silver prices is an orchestration is apparent from the fact that the demand for bullion in the physical market has increased while naked short sales in the paper market imply a flight from bullion.

What does this illegal manipulation of markets by the Federal Reserve tell us? It tells us that the Federal Reserve sees no way out of printing money in order to support the federal deficit and the insolvent banks. If the dollar came under attack and the Federal Reserve had to stop printing dollars, interest rates would rise. The bond and stock markets would collapse. The dollar would be abandoned as reserve currency. Washington would no longer be able to pay its bills and would lose its hegemony. The world of hubristic Washington would collapse.

It remains to be seen whether Washington can prevail over the world demand for gold and silver. Can the dollar remain supreme when offshoring has deprived the US of the ability to cover its imports with exports? Can the dollar remain supreme when the Federal reserve is creating 1,000 billion new ones each year, while the BRICS, China and Japan, China and Australia, and China and Russia are making deals to settle their trade balances without the use of the dollar?

If the consumption-based US economy deprived of consumer income by jobs offshoring takes a further dip down in the third or fourth quarter–a downturn that cannot be masked by phony statistical releases–the federal deficit will rise. What will be the effect on the dollar if the Federal Reserve has to increase its Quantitative Easing?

A perfect storm has been prepared for America. Real interest rates are negative, but debt and money are being created hand over foot. The dollar’s demise awaits the world’s decision how to get out of it. The Federal Reserve can print dollars with which to keep the bond and stock markets high, but the Federal Reserve cannot print foreign currencies with which to keep the dollar afloat.

When the dollar goes, Washington’s power goes, which is why the bullion market is rigged. Protect the power. That is the agenda. Is it another Washington over-reach?

Source: http://www.globalresearch.ca/threat-to-the-hegemony-of-the-us-dollar-rigged-gold-bullion-market/5335671

Market Buzz: Japan’s GDP wows and gold hits 9-yr low

Spencer Platt/Getty Images/AFP

Despite other emerging markets performing well, Russian markets hit their lowest close in two weeks. Rosneft fell and the ruble weakened against the dollar on the decision of Bank of Russia to hold the refinancing rate at 8.25 percent.

The MICEX dropped 0.98 percent and will open Thursday at 1391.98. The RTS slightly eased and gained 5.83 points, closing at 1.396.76.

European market indices also gained. On Asian floors, the Euro Stoxx is up 0.50 percent to 2,809.58, France’s CAC 40 is up 0.41 percent, and Germany’s DAX is making gains, up 0.28 percent, continuing its record gain ascent.

Market gains appeared immune to France’s poor Q1 news which officially put them in a recession, or Germany’s slowed growth report.

In London, FTSE 100 added 0.22 percent, continuing its nine-day rally, after the Bank of England revised its growth predictions for the second quarter. On Asian floors, the index dipped down to 6,990.70 at 11:29 GMT. UK lenders led the markets- Royal Bank of Scotland jumped 1.75 percent, Barclays rallied 1.83 percent and Lloyds Banking jumped 1.87 percent.

US markets ended high Wednesday. The Dow Jones gained 0.40 percent and closed and the S&P 500 rose 0.51 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite edged up 0.26 percent on the New York Exchange. Analysts await US inflation and unemployment data, set to be released at 13:30 GMT.

Asian stocks were mixed on Japan’s solid 3.5 percent GDP increase, easily topping 2.7 percent estimates The Nikkei fell 1.08 percent after it hit a five-year high on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Seng gained 0.27 percent and the Shanghai Composite added 0.59 percent

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.20 percent on falling gold prices and mining weakness. The NZSE also dropped 0.21 percent, and on Thursday announced its 2013-2014 GDP growth forecast of 2.3 percent, compared to last year’s 3 percent growth.

Both WTI and Brent are trading low. WTI is down 0.41 percent and trading at 93.91 and Brent is down 0.40 percent at 103.27.

Source: http://rt.com/business/market-buzz-japan-gold-359/