JPMorgan’s vault gold declines

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up  by $1.30 to $1398.40 (comex closing time).  Silver rose by 6 cents to $22.46  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :

gold: 1404.10
silver:  $22.56

I am not going into the trading of gold and silver because you all know that it is manipulated throughout all time zones, so I will not waste your time.

At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 739 contracts to 145,734 contracts with silver‘s fall in price on Tuesday by 32 cents.  The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts fell  by 2909 contracts to 375,970 which is extremely low. There is no question that all of the weak speculators in gold have now departed.  Only the strong remain. The number of ounces which is standing for gold in this  June delivery month  is 936,400 or 29.12 tonnes.The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery is represented by 620,000 oz. No doubt this level will climb as the June month proceeds.

Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold lowers to  1.513 million oz or 47.06 tonnes.  This is getting dangerously low.  The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly and now it is just below the 8 million oz at 7.985 million oz or 248.36 tonnes of gold.

The GLD  reported another loss in gold inventory to the tune of 2.7 tonnes. The SLV inventory of silver also remained firm with no losses.

We have physical stories today from Addison Wiggin on the fraudulent leasing of gold and silver;Jessie from the Jessie’s American cafe on the low registered gold inventory at the Comex with additional inputs from zero hedge with respect to JPMorgan’s inventory. Dr Paul Craig Roberts discusses the price manipulation of gold with the report.

Finally, Adrian Ash discusses events in India where the government banned all credit related purchases of gold.  That is correct, gold can only be purchased with cash.  Gold paid no attention as it rose soon after the announcement.

On the paper side of things, we have a report from Dave of Denver/the Golden Truth who is paying attention to the signals that are being emanated out of the junk bond market.

We have  great commentaries for you from Bill Holter  on the ramifications of the past 6 days of global trading and how we must prepare for the inevitable.

Wolf Richter provides a superb presentation on how China is gobbling up all major assets that it can find.

Pivotfarm gives a good thorough analysis on what is going on in Egypt today.

We will go over these and other stories but first…………………

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:

The total gold comex open interest fell  by 2909 contracts from  375,970 down to 373,061 with gold falling by $14.60 yesterday. The front active month of June saw it’s OI fall by 225 contracts from 3540 contracts down to 3315. We had 63 contracts served upon our longs yesterday.  We thus lost 162  contracts or 16,200   that will not stand this month. The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI fell by 62 contracts up to 537.  The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI fell by 2725 contracts from 215,940 down to 213,215 . The estimated volume today was poor at 129,971 contracts.    The confirmed volume yesterday was also poor at 126,177 contracts. It looks to me like all of the paper gold longs have been washed out!!

The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. Its OI rose by 739  contracts to 145,734,  with  silver‘s fall in price to the tune of 34 cents yesterday.  The front non active June silver contract month shows no gain or loss in OI contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so in essence we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing for metal for the June contract month.   The estimated volume today was fair, coming in at 39,988 contracts.  The confirmed volume yesterday was better at  at 42,750.

Comex gold/May contract month:

June 5/2013

the June contract month:

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil  (0 oz)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
21,034.434  oz (JPMorgan, HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 333 (33,300  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2982 (298,200 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6382  (638,200  oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
100.000 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
35,324.352 oz
We again had good activity at the gold vaults
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawal.
We had 0 customer deposits today: (very strange for a huge delivery month of June)

Gold reclaims $1,400 as dollar falls after ISM

Gold futures closed above $1,400 an ounce on Monday, lifted by a weaker dollar in the wake of data showing a contraction in U.S. manufacturing in May.

Gold prices recouped nearly everything they lost on Friday with the weak manufacturing data easing concerns about a pullback in the Federal Reserve’s bond-purchase program, which has been supportive for gold.

Gold for August delivery GCQ3 0.00%  rose $18.90, or 1.4%, to settle at $1,411.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Friday, gold prices fell $19 an ounce after better-than-expected data about manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, and after a gauge on U.S. consumer sentiment in May reached the highest level since 2007.

Data Monday showed that the Institute for Supply Management’s index fell to 49.0% last month from 50.7% in April. That marked the first contraction since November.

Fire rips through China slaughterhouse

A deadly fire at a Chinese poultry factory underscores growing concerns about China’s food-production regulations.

The weaker-than-expected ISM is “another example of mixed data which is leading the lack of clear direction and timing” from the Federal Reserve to curtail or cease quantitative easing, said Jeffrey Wright, managing director at Global Hunter Securities.

Other examples of mixed data included reports from China and Europe.

China experts weighed conflicting data on the nation’s manufacturing sector, with HSBC reporting Monday that the sector contracted in May, while government numbers released earlier pointed to a pickup in activity.

Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI for the euro zone climbed to 48.3 from 46.7 in April, marking the highest level in 15 months. But the reading still indicated contraction.

Gold likes quantitative easing, “so as long as there isn’t any big news out hinting towards a down-scaling in QE3, one ingredient for gold bulls is in the mixing bowl,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group.

The Fed’s QE program has helped support gold as QE tends to pressure the dollar and can lead to inflation. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation.

On Monday, the dollar DXY +0.02%  also fell sharply after the ISM figures, providing support for gold and other commodities.

A weaker dollar tends to provide a lift for prices of dollar-denominated commodities by making them cheaper for holders of other currencies to buy.

Bigger news this week will be the U.S. employment report on Friday, and any further QE signals from the Fed, said Wright.


The Gold/Silver Canary In The Coalmine

In general when equity prices are rising and credit spreads are tightening, the ratio of gold-to-silver prices falls as ‘fear’ ebbs away and confidence in a real economy returns as exemplified by the rise of risk assets. Twice before we have seen the anti-correlation of stocks and gold/silver flip to a highly correlated regime, and as Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day notes, each time it suggested “stocks were due to snap”. It seems a concerted push above and a 50x ratio (for gold-to-silver) tends to exhibit notably risk-off behavior. Currently, the S&P 500 and Gold-to-Silver ratio have been highly correlated since this last rally began in stocks and as HSBC‘s Charles Morris notes, this suggests a ‘snap’ in risk assets within six months.