Just who does the Fed think it is kidding, making noises about choking off QE and Treasury purchases? Any serious attempt to do this at the eleventh hour would crash both the bond and stockmarkets and send interest rates skyrocketing, and they know it – it would be like the Captain of the Titanic grabbing a bullhorn and announcing “You see that Iceberg over there? – we’re going to head straight at it” – actually he might as well have, for all the difference it made. So it almost looks like they were engaging in a bit of “tree shaking” for their crony pals, especially with respect to the resource sector. In any case, when it comes to QE they have got some serious competition this year with Japan entering the fray as the new big QE kid on the block, so it hardly looks like they are going to bow out of the QE game at this stage. There is something tragi-comic about the way most investors hang on to the Fed’s every word, as if they were gods instead of what they really are which is an elite racket who have painted themselves into a corner after years of malfeasance. Continue reading
After gold’s losses of the past couple of weeks there is increasing talk about its bullmarket being finally over. In this update we will use long-term charts to determine whether these claims have any substance.
On its 12-year chart, which goes back to the start of the bullmarket, we can see that the top boundary of the uptrend from 2006 is defined by the line drawn across 3 important peaks, and it is from this line that the parallel supporting trendline beneath is derived. While there is no law stating that the lower trendline has to be parallel, it is nevertheless likely, and it is regarded as no coincidence that the strong support at recent lows, which needs to hold, and this lower trendline are more or less coincident at this time – if the current reaction continues this is where it should stop and reverse, although as we will see later on the 6-month chart it may not drop back any further than where it is now.