$300 Trillion In Derivatives Losses To Lead Gold’s Rebound

Today Egon von Greyerz warned King World News that the global derivatives market has already suffered a staggering $300 trillion of losses.  These massive derivatives losses, which are being hidden from the public, will help lead the rebound in gold as it begins the next leg of its bull market.  Below is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this powerful interview.

Greyerz:  “A few years ago when the problems in Greece started, it was found that the Goldman Sachs had helped them to hide the real truth of their economy by a major derivatives positions.

 

Now we’ve found out that Italy has done exactly the same thing.  They took out derivatives in order to meet euro criteria back in the late 1990s.  They had a total of $31 billion of derivatives and now they are finding that at least $8 billion of that is worthless.  That’s about 30% of the entire position….

 

“This just illustrates what I’ve been saying time and time again, that a major part of the over one quadrillion dollars of derivatives currently held in the financial world is worthless.  Here you have a typical position that a government is taking, $31 billion of derivatives, and 30% is worthless.

 

If you then overlay that loss into the total amount of global derivatives, the loss would be a staggering $300 trillion.  It would not surprise me if $300 trillion is in fact very close to the total losses on global derivatives.  If that is the case it means that no counterparty can cover those type of losses, so in reality the entire financial system is bankrupt.

 

This is why the world will witness money printing on an unprecedented scale going forward, despite misinformation and propaganda about “tapering of QE.”  So central planners are just hiding the truth and lying to the public.

 

If we continue to look at Italy, 160 corporations are in “special crisis administration.”  That’s 160 major companies in Italy alone are in serious financial trouble.  But Italy has a stunning debt to GDP ratio of 238%.  In reality it’s probably a lot higher than 238% because of the derivatives losses which have been used to conceal the truth about what is really taking place.

 

But what this means is we can’t trust any government figures.  This is why Draghi recently said, “There is still downside risk.”  Of course there is downside risk, and that risk is massive.  If we look at the European banking system, it’s terminal.  People can never repay their debts to those banks, and of course the banks have continued to borrow money from the ECB since 2008.  Of all of the bad debts these banks have, remember that nothing has been written off or even written down so far.

 

And of course the central banks have bought worthless debts directly from the banks in Europe.  The ECB over the last 11 years has grown its balance sheet over 200%.  The Fed’s balance sheet has grown 400%.  The Chinese central bank has grown its balance sheet 660%, and the Bank of England 800%.  England’s balance sheet has gone from $2 trillion to $9 trillion, and of course that debt can never be repaid.

 

Not only are the central banks highly leveraged, but so are the commercial banks.  France is also in a mess.  French bank Credit Agricole has a remarkable 46 times leverage!  So if there is 2% bad debt, the capital of that bank is wiped out.  Another French bank is using 40 times leverage.  Credit Suisse, if you use Basel III rules, also has 40 times leverage.  Deutsche Bank has 30 times leverage.

Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_$300_Trillion_In_Derivatives_Losses_To_Lead_Golds_Rebound.html

Gold Will Continue To Go Lower, Unless Investment Demand Returns

I have never really bought the argument about the dollar and gold (GLD). Yes, many years ago there was a relationship between gold and the dollar, but that was because the world monetary system was different. Today, the amount of money in circulation has nothing to do with gold. Look at Japan — it has been printing overtime for many years now, as well as all of Asia. Why does gold have to be a function of U.S. dollar printing, and not a function of international money printing? Funny enough, gold bulls never really mention money printing in the rest of the world.

Either way, the reason why gold and silver (SLV) will go up or down is demand. Is does not matter where this demand is coming from. Demand is demand, and at the margin increased demand will raise prices. Demand destruction, on the other hand, will take prices down.

Click to enlarge image.

The chart above comes from the World Gold Council, the officially lobbying group for all things gold. As its figures show, demand for gold was down across the board in Q4 2012 year over year, with the exception of jewelry, which posted a 12% gain. However, demand from technology, investment, and even official sector purchases were down.

In fact, if we look at Q1 2013, investment demand was a whopping 50% lower vs. Q4 2012. Something else to keep in mind is this: Investment demand makes up 21% of total demand. At the margin, if you strip out 50% of investment demand, that comes out to a 10% total loss in demand for gold. While this is demand that could be made up somewhere else, the truth of the matter is that so far it hasn’t. As far as when investment demand will come back, for the time being this does not seem to be in the cards.

In a recent poll taken by Credit Suisse, over half the 185 commodity investors that participated in the poll believe that gold will be lower than $1,400 an ounce by the end of 2013. Societe Generale believes that gold holdings through exchange-traded products will probably decrease by another 285 metric tons in 2013. Societe Generale believes that gold prices will average $1,200 an ounce in Q4 2013. The firm had previously forecast a drop to $1,375 by the end of the year.

I don’t know when investment demand for gold and silver will come back. But unless it comes back, prices at the margin will continue to fall. For how long and were prices will bottom is anyone’s guess, but I think the $1,200 mark that Societe Generale mentioned is as good a guess as any. Finally, jewelry purchases from India (or China for that matter) are not enough to offset current investment outflows, in order for demand to increase enough for gold and silver prices to start rising again. That will only happen when investment demand and investment demand alone for gold and silver revives.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1511282-gold-will-continue-to-go-lower-unless-investment-demand-returns

Speculative Gold Bets at 5-Year Low; Metal Will Get “Crushed” Says Credit Suisse

Sentiment is never a perfect timing instrument.Yet, with Hedge Fund Bets on Gold at Five-Year Low I am comfortable stating the gold bull market is not over.

Hedge funds are the least bullish on gold in more than five years as speculation about the pace of money printing by central banks whipsawed prices, driving volatility to a 17-month high.

Money managers cut their net-long position by 9 percent to 35,686 futures and options as of May 21, the lowest since July 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.7 percent to a record 79,416. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities slid 2.1 percent, as investors became more bearish on coffee and wheat.

Investor sentiment is “negative towards gold,” and physical demand has started to slow, Suki Cooper, a New York-based analyst at Barclays Plc, said in a May 24 report. The metal will get “crushed” and trade at $1,100 in a year and below $1,000 in five years as inflation fails to accelerate, Ric Deverell, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in London on May 16.

“I would be underweight the commodities at this point until we start seeing a pickup in global growth and a self-sustaining recovery here in the U.S.,” Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based fund manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $130 billion. “The global economy has been decelerating, and China is struggling.”

Metal Will Get “Crushed” Says Credit Suisse

Unlike copper, gold is not an industrial commodity so a slowing global economy is simply not that pertinent. It appears to me that neither Ric Deverell at Credit Suisse, nor Chad Morganlander at Stifel Nicolaus has a clue about what the fundamental driver for the price of gold is.

Granted sentiment is poor, but bull markets tend to end on good news with extreme positive sentiment (such as we see now with US equities), and bear markets end on bad news and extreme pessimism.

Speculative positioning in gold is at a 5-year low on little over a 30% drop in price. That is hugely negative sentiment for such a routine drop. Bull markets do not end that way. They end with the masses becoming true believers.

I strongly suspect the bull market in gold will not end until after the public embraces gold in a major way.

Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2013/05/speculative-gold-bets-at-5-year-low.html