Game Over – “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone”

Today one of the savviest and well connected hedge fund managers in the world shocked King World News by taking us once again on a trip down the rabbit hole that was nothing short of breathtaking.  Outspoken Hong Kong hedge fund manager William Kaye spoke with KWN about the missing Fed and German gold, where it has gone, and how much gold the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) really owns.  This interview is going to stun readers around the world.  Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, had this to say in part I of his remarkable interview.

Kaye:  “Global hegemony (leadership or dominance) is changing in a way that most people don’t fully comprehend.  This area of the world, the Asia-Pacific, China in particular, is positioning itself to be the leading global power as we look out over the next five to ten years.

My sources tell me that contrary to the public numbers that are available, China has anywhere between 4,000 to possibly 8,000 tons of (physical) gold….

“They are not only the world’s largest producer of gold, but they are the largest importer of gold in the world.

This is an ongoing process for China.  This is a strategic initiative.  So China is massively accumulating the gold that is being extricated from the West at a very rapid pace.  The dynamics here are very geopolitical, and the Far-East is being elevated by this.

In the ‘New World Order,’ which will ensue when this raid ends, China’s position, Russia’s position, Brazil’s position, will be greatly enhanced.  The position of the United States, as well as Europe and the UK, will be greatly reduced.  Those are the major consequences.”

Eric King:  “Bill, you say China has over 4,000 tons of gold already, possibly as high as 8,000 tons.  Where do you see them heading in terms of their overall ownership of gold?”

Kaye:  “Well, they’re not done yet.  Gold has been leased out, and we do know this (takes place) because it’s been admitted to by the major central banks.  The Fed has admitted it, the European Central Bank has admitted it, the Bank of England has admitted it.  They’ve all admitted that they engage in wholesale leasing of gold to the market.


State Street: Now, Never or Forever — Gold After the Fall

After falling sharply over two days in mid-April, many investors are beginning to question the role that gold should play in their portfolio.

Putting this sell-off into context will comfort some, but others will ask if they can still count on gold to be the all-weather asset that they expected it to be. Gold’s recent decline was certainly steep, but it wasn’t unprecedented. In fact, gold has seen seven pullbacks of more than 10% since 2001. After each drop, gold went on to not only rebound but to post new highs. This trend highlights the need to understand both the short-term and long-term drivers of the price of gold in order to see why gold remains a key element to a diversified portfolio.

Market pundits and analysts have attributed a multitude of explanations for April’s declines. One such explanation concludes that the sell-off of Cyprusgold reserves would lead to other highly indebted European countries having to do the same and consequently cause gold to fall aggressively. Considering that this would require changes to current arrangements, such as the Central Bank Gold Agreement, even if this was to occur, the Cypriot contagion argument may not capture the full picture. The economic slowdown in China has also been cited as a plausible reason for the sell-off in gold. While the Chinese GDP print did come in below consensus expectations, 7.7% growth is nothing to be ashamed of in today’s environment, and would still lead to continued demand for gold from China. Another explanation puts blame on the recent outflows from exchange traded funds (ETFs) as a major influence. Considering gold ETFs and other related investments comprise only 7% of annual gold demand, this argument appears weak.

Others contend that the strength of the US dollar is the main culprit for gold’s recent weakness. Based on gold’s negative correlation to the dollar over the long-term, this may be a more plausible explanation. In 2013, gold has declined at the same time as the dollar has rallied. However, as seen in Figure 1, this correlation doesn’t do an excellent job of explaining April’s drop, because while both assets generally moved in opposite directions, the way they did so differed tremendously.

Yet, in light of the recent unprecedented, and extraordinary monetary policy measures that have been undertaken around the globe, many investors expected to see inflation run rampant. However, due to a lack of velocity, inflation has been downright subdued in many developed markets, especially in the US. In turn, near-term inflation expectations have decreased considerably. The relationship between gold and US inflation expectations this year has been strong. Considering that some investors purchase gold for its inflation-fighting characteristics, if prices are sideways or downwards, investors may begin to question an allocation to gold because they feel that gold is no longer needed as an inflation hedge, therefore providing no real utility in their portfolio.

Should the dollar continue to outperform relative to its largest trading partners, gold could face additional headwinds. At the same time inflation may be low for the time being, but the long-term impacts of quantitative easing and balance sheet expansion are unknown. While subject to controversy, there’s strong evidence to suggest that gold can protect investor’s purchasing power.

Gold Demand Extraordinary In Vietnam – Paying $217 Premium Over Spot

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,386.00, EUR 1,038.59 and GBP 881.79 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,379.75, EUR 1,035.54 and GBP 882.76 per ounce.

Gold climbed to $1391.50/oz on Friday, its first close above $1390/oz in four weeks and silver climbed 1.2 percent to $22.07 an ounce.

Gold is marginally lower today in most currencies after last week’s small gain which was positive from a technical perspective.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East looks set to again brandish gold‘s safe-haven appeal and will support prices. Gold is higher in yen today as the yen has fallen against all currencies.

Demand in India and across much of Asia has fallen from the record levels seen in April but remains robust nevertheless which will support prices. Extraordinary demand from India and China has received all the attention in recent weeks while equally extraordinary demand in other Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has been completely ignored.

The Vietnamese Central Bank sold another 25,700 taels (37.5 grams, 1.2 troy ounces) at a gold bar auction on Friday in order to try and satiate the massive public demand for gold in Vietnam.

The Central Bank hopes that the sale of gold into the market will reduce the very high premiums paid by gold buyers in Vietnam, the largest buyer of gold in Southeast Asia after Thailand and one of the largest physical buyers of gold per capita in the world.

Vietnamese people hold gold as a store of wealth for protection against war, inflation and currency depreciation. In recent months, the bursting of bubbles in the stock market (see chart) and property market and the continuing devaluation of the dong has led to record demand in Vietnam and a surging premium over the spot price of gold.

Today, the premium was close to 5.5 million dong which is the equivalent of a very high premium of $217 per ounce over spot.

The premium reached an all-time high of more than $210 per ounce or 6 million dong in April, when gold prices were hammered by what appeared to be manipulative selling on the COMEX futures market.

The Vietnamese Central Bank has held sales since the end of March to help banks return deposits by June 30. So far 709,800 taels, or about 27 tons, have been sold in 28 auctions through June 7, according to the bank.

It is hoped that the gap between domestic and global prices for immediate delivery will probably drop to 4 million dong a tael ($158 an ounce) by the end of July, according to Nguyen Thanh Truc, vice chairman of the Vietnam Gold Traders Association.

Vietnam’s central bank has, like the Reserve Bank of India, tightened rules on gold trading. These include making itself the sole importer. This is an attempt to limit gold demand, the impact of gold prices on the exchange rate and in a misguided attempt to prevent a further devaluation of the dong.

As part of the drive, banks must return all gold deposits to investors by June 30, while the State Bank of Vietnam is selling gold to lenders and trading companies to boost domestic supplies.

Vietnam consumed 77 metric tons of gold last year. This compares favourably with massive gold buyers in India and China – 864.2 tons in India, 776.1 tons in China, where the populations are over 1 billion. Vietnam has a population of just 87 million and thus is one of the highest buyers of physical gold per capita in the world.

Purchases of physical gold between 2011-2012 accounted for over 3% of GDP.

Interestingly, property prices are often quoted in taels of gold rather than the local currency due to the Vietnamese experience of monetary inflation and currency debasement.

“The stricter regulatory measures implemented by the State Bank of Vietnam and the fear of a steep decline in gold’s price may affect gold demand temporarily,” Albert Cheng, Far East managing director at the council, said in an e-mail.

“In the long run, for the majority of Vietnamese, particularly those who have lived through the war years and the ensuing economic regression, gold is still considered as the favorite tool for saving and investment.”