By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.
An opportunity is now being created in precious metals if the current correction continues. Most precious metals have been falling in price, as financial markets continue to reassess the expectations for economic growth. With lower expectations for global economic growth, the demand outlook for raw materials and spot prices are also going down.
The price of gold has, in my mind, been worthy of a correction for quite some time now. In fact, I think it would be a very healthy development for the long-term trend. It wouldn’t surprise me if the spot price of gold were to retreat and consolidate around the $1,600 level. It’s trading around $1,700 now and $1,600 should provide a good base.
Perhaps an even better commodity to concentrate on would be silver. This precious metal is more useful in terms of its industrial uses and many argue that it hasn’t kept up with the spot price of gold and could therefore be a better trade. The spot price of silver just broke the $37.00-per-ounce level and there’s no reason why it won’t retreat further to the $30.00-per-ounce level if the current trend in capital markets continues.
This is a very difficult stock market and individual investors are loath to participate. While expectations for the future continue to be reduced, the fundamentals for gold and silver remain mostly intact and are therefore worthy of new positions when spot prices find a new base.
It’s a wait-and-see stock market and a wait-and-see spot price market for precious metals. I think the focus for speculative investors should be on gold and silver and that risk-capital investors will have an attractive new entry point very soon.
As for the rest of the stock market, share prices remain very vulnerable before third-quarter earnings season begins. Over the last little while, equity investors have had to endure tremendous shocks to the system: sovereign debt problems in Europe; the downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt; natural disasters in Japan; no improvement in housing prices; and no improvement in employment…the list goes on. I think it’s fair to say that the equity market has held up quite well all things considered.
What we know is that mature economies are now in a period of very little to zero growth over the next 12 months. We also know that developing economies are slowing down and the probability of another recession is going up. The trading action in financial and commodity markets reflects falling expectations for economic growth and an expansion in the time horizon for recovery. Predicting outcomes in this environment is a crapshoot—nobody knows how or when the economy will get better.
With belt-tightening going on at the individual consumer level and at the government level in virtually all mature economies, we should be in a slow growth environment for quite a long time.