There is a high probability that the correction in the gold price that started in early October at $1797 has been completed.
All the minor waves are in place and the A and C wave portions are approximately equal at -$120 each. The chart below depicts the action on Comex via the 2 month forward chart:
The analysis of wave C is as follows:
- a. 1758 to 1687 -71
- b. 1687 to 1727 +40
- c. 1727 to 1636 -91
C. 1758 to 1636 -122
Wave a. at -$71 is 78% of wave c. at $91, an Elliott relationship.
Even the smaller c wave portion of wave C has 5 small waves which have a neat Elliott configuration, as follows:
Analysis of wave c of C:
- i. 1727 to 1681 -46
- ii. 1681 to 1706 +25
- iii. 1706 to 1664 -42
- iv. 1664 to 1680 +26
- v. 1680 to 1636 -44
Wave c. 1727 to 1636 -91
Note that the corrective waves ii and iv are +25 and +26, confirming that they are part of the same wave. The downward waves are within $2 of -$44 each. All pretty neat.
The following chart of the PM gold fixings was prepared a couple of weeks ago to indicate the possible target low of $1642 for the end of the correction:
Note that $1642 was also the 61.8% retracement level as well as the point where waves A and C would have been equal. That target of $1642 was not achieved, the lowest PM fix being $1650 on Dec 20, 2012. There was a slightly lower morning fix the next day, but there is enough evidence when combined with the Comex gold chart to conclude that the correction from $1797 has been completed.
Obviously a decline to below $1636 would render this analysis valueless and we would have to reconsider the situation. The PM fix on Jan 2, 2013 was $1693, so there is already some upward movement on the scale that one should now expect.
Once $1800 is taken out on the upside, the gold chart will look tremendous. A beautiful “cup and handle” base would then provide strong support for a vigorous upward climb in the precious metal. At this stage there is no reason to abandon the rough target of $4500 for this coming upward wave. Once we have the next upleg above $1800 in place, it will be possible to start refining this target.
It seems that gold is well set up for a spectacular year in 2013.